Habs Have Little Margin For Error

With a mere seven days remaining in the Montreal Canadiens regular season, it appears that only 2 teams other than themselves, can help determine their fate.

The key is what they, themselves, accomplish as far as wins.

Either way it is looked at, the results of games involving the Habs, and those between the Rangers a point above them, and the Maple Leafs, a point below them, are extremely critical.

Games involving Tampa, Carolina, and the Islanders have slipped to the periphery of the Habs fate.

The simplest truth remains that they require 3 wins and 6 points to make the post season. Any deviance from that fact, should they falter in that goal, would necessitate help from the final two teams they need to beat.

Help in this case would be described as timely losses and timely wins by those Rangers and Leafs. Counting on either is risky.

On either count, help starts on April Fools Day - today, of all ironics!

The Habs need the team they are chasing, the Rangers, to beat the team chasing them, the Maple Leafs, in order to avoid a final, winner takes all game, with the Leafs next Saturday.

While the Canadiens are chasing the Rangers, the logjam that would be created by a Toronto win on Sunday, hinders their chances, and sets up a do or die next weekend in Toronto. The Leafs would also jump past Montreal in the standings, by 1 point, with a win over the Rangers, making next Thursdays Habs / Rangers game even more crucial to NYR.

From the Rangers perspective, winning the next 2 games qualifies them for the post season. If you check the current standings below, you can see that the 4 additional points would put the Rangers out of reach of the Hurricanes, Islanders and Leafs, with 93. Toronto could still achieve 93 points, but with less wins cannot surpass the Rangers in the standings.

6-Tampa Bay 90 (79-43-32-4) car / flo*/ ATL* (Max 96)

7-New York Rangers 89 (78-40-29-9) tor*/ NYI / mon / PIT (Max 97)

8-Montreal Canadiens 88 (79-41-32-6) bos / NYR / TOR (Max 94)

9-Toronto Maple Leafs 87 (78-38-29-11) NYR* / phi / NYI / mon (Max 95)
10-Carolina Hurricanes 84 (78-38-32-8) FLO / TB / atl* / flo* (Max 92)
11- New York Islanders 84 (78-36-30-12) nyr / tor / PHI*/ NJ* (Max 92)

That is why a New York win on Sunday, gives Montreal two advantages.

One, the Canadiens / Rangers tilt next Thurday has much less consequence for NYR, should they defeat the Islanders as would be expected on Tuesday. That wouldn't be bad news for the Habs.

The second benefit is that Toronto would then max out at a total of 93 possible points with a loss to NYR tomorrow. Should they need overtime to beat Montreal on Saturday, the Habs would be in the playoffs, as the season series gives Montreal the edge.

The tricky scenarios do not end there. Two Maple Leaf's losses combined with a win and extra time loss by Montreal, eliminates Toronto, due to Montreal's win total and season series stats versus each other, regardless of a Toronto win over the Habs in the final game.

I like those odds, at least until tomorrow!

For the longshot Islanders and Hurricanes, the situation is awful grim, as both teams remain 3 points back from 9th place Toronto. If they believe in miracles, prayer beads, voodoo, and Sundin, Jagr, and Koivu kupie dolls, it begins with both of them winning all 4 of their remaining games.

The Hurricanes do not play Montreal, Toronto, or the Rangers, and can therefore not affect their fate. Two Montreal wins, barring a Tampa and Rangers collapse (1 win, 2 wins, respectively) eliminates them.

The Islanders have a slight edge on the 'Canes, if one could term it that, as they play the Rangers and Leafs, Tuesday and Thursday respectively, in games that involve them chasing their fate.

Should the Rangers beat Toronto and then beat the Islanders, NYI are finished. Should the Leafs beat the Rangers, then the Flyers, on Tuesday, a Leaf win over the Islanders, on Thursday, would knock them out.

Each game played wipes out scenario's mentioned beforehand.

Should the Habs get cocky and fumble against Boston on Tuesday, I just might take every iota of hockey knowledge I have, on a long holiday till next October!

The Playoff Picture

Here's how the Eastern Conference playoff picture looks heading into the final two weeks. Each team away games are in capital letters.

Current Standings - March 30

6-Tampa Bay 88 (78-42-32-4) was* / car / flo*/ ATL*
7-New York Rangers 87 (77-39-29-9) PHI* / tor*/ NYI / mon / PIT
8-Montreal Canadiens 86 (78-40-32-6) buf* / bos / NYR / TOR
9-Toronto Maple Leafs 85 (77-37-29-11) pit* / NYR* / phi / NYI / mon
10- New York Islanders 84 (77-36-29-12) OTT* / nyr / tor / PHI*/ NJ*
11-Carolina Hurricanes 84 (78-38-32-8) FLO / TB / atl* / flo*

Four points separate six teams, so anything at this point is still technically possible. The pro's and cons for each teams chances are as follows:

Tampa: They have they most wins in the bag, and don't play a road game until their last match in Atlanta. They are 3 points up on the non playoff teams as of now, though two of those teams own a game in hand. As inconsistant goaltender has been their undoing of late, coach Tortorella has named Johan Holmqvist as his starter in goal the rest of the way. A split of their 4 remaining games should place them in the playoffs.

Rangers: One point behind the Lightening, Rangers have 3 of 5 left to play on the road, with 4 of those games against teams below them in the standings. They should make easy pickings of the Flyers and Islanders. One additional win against either of the other three opponants should clinch it it for New York. The Montreal and Toronto games will not be easy as they are perhaps in a more desperate place than the Rangers are. Their five remaining games are in an 8 day span. They hold their destiny.

Montreal: The Habs must win three of the final four and hope it doesn't come down to the last games in Toronto. A loss against Buffalo could derail the playoff express. Jaroslav Halak will continue in goal until fate is decided. Destiny is theirs if they sweep 4 straight, not an easy task. In their favor is their win column total of 40. With two wins added, none of the three teams chasing them can surpass 42. Points gained in extra play losses are not negligable added to this scenario.

Toronto: Three of the final 5 games are very tough challenges. Should they drop two of the first four, they need to hope Montreal does the same and catch them on the final night. The Ranger game is crucial to their outcome. A loss combined with a Montreal win could be almost fatal. Their destiny seems linked to Montreal fate at this point. Should Toronto win all 5 games, they would jump ahead of Montreal and make the playoffs. Their five remaining games are in an 8 day span also.

Islanders: Without goalie DiPietro, chances are slim. Two losses will pretty much eliminate them. With three road games and consecutive meetings with teams in the thick of the race might be too much to deal with. The Islanders practically need to sweep and hope either Montreal or Toronto wins less than three of their remaining games. The Islanders end the season on a Sunday when most teams have already finished the schedule.

Carolina: In the same boat as the Islanders. They must win 4 games and pray. Home and away games against the pesky Panthers are the only seeming breaks in their favor. By the time they play in Tampa, it could be all over. As three teams ahead of them own a game in hand, they will need help to get in.

Habs In The Drivers Seat

Okay, I've done all the figuring...Hab fans... enjoy this post!

The Montreal Canadiens were hoping for some outside help in their playoff drive and they received it from teams in the lower echelon of the Eastern Conference standings.

Tuesdays 5-2 Florida win over Tampa Bay, helped the Canadiens gain a 7th place tie with the Lightening, two points up on the Carolina Hurricanes, who were seeded ninth. With the 'Canes 5-1 loss to Philadelphia Wednesday night, the Habs became the beneficiaries of a slight cushion in the standings.

Hey Philly and Florida, we own you one!

What this does for the Canadiens, is provide them with a small margin of error, namely one loss in their final 5 games. Prior to these unexpected wins by playoff also-rans, the Habs would have needed to pull off wins in all 5 of their remaining games to make the post season.

Hopefully, they do not fall asleep on this cushion of a gift from above - or below!

The key to Habs standing is the wins column - the first in any tiebreaker format. As the Canadiens have 40 wins with five games left to play, their recent win streak has clearly placed them in the drivers seat. Should they win them all, they are in the playoffs. No tiebreaker or three point scenario's can undo that fact.

To clarify, the Hurricanes have 38 wins, two less than Montreal with no games in hand. The Islanders have 36 wins, 4 wins less than the Canadiens, with a game in hand. Toronto has 37 wins, three short of Montreal, with a game in hand.

All three teams are 2 points back.

No need to remind those following this impassioned race that the Habs last regular season game is in Toronto against the Leafs.

Here's hoping it's a meaningless tilt at that point.

While a Montreal loss or two could shuffle the perspectives, their wins in hand, if you will, might become the difference. In other words, if the Canadiens maintain the margin of more wins than the others until that last game, that dreaded Leafs contest would be without meaning.

The Habs would need four wins to eliminate all three teams, while three wins cooks the books for the Leafs and Isles.

Should Montreal go on to win 3 of 5, and Toronto win all six of their remaining games, including the last game against the Habs, Montreal's season record versus the Leafs, would give them the nod in the 2nd tiebreaker of the formula.

The Islanders would need to win all 6 remaining games, with Rick DiPietro on the shelf, and hope the Habs win just 2 of 5 to skip ahead of them.

Carolina then becomes the prime concern.

As both teams have five games remaining, 4 Montreal wins does the Hurricanes in - the wins column tilting in the Habs favor. Should the Canadiens win only three, Carolina would still need to win all five of their games to pull ahead of the Canadiens, as 4 wins by Hurricanes, in the event of a point standings tie, would still leave them with one less win than Montreal.

Should the Canadiens and Hurricanes deadlock in points and wins, Carolina would then advance ahead of Montreal as they have won 3 0f 4 regular season meetings.

It might not get that far as the Hurricanes schedule is a tough one. Home and away games against the Lightening, themselves fighting for a slipping spot, another home and away set with the prickly Florida Panthers, and a tilt with playoff bound Thrashers might just well undo the defending Stanley Cup champs with one untimely loss.

Montreal faces Ottawa Friday on the road, and Buffalo at home the next night. They meet Boston for their final home game before taking on the Rangers and Leafs on the oad in succession, in what might well become meaningless games should they win the first three and anyone else lose.

For the record, Tampa Bay, who have one win more than Montreal and sit 7th, have a pair of tilts against Carolina at home and away, with Washington at home between those games. They end their season with a home game against the Panthers before finishing up in Atlanta.

The Rangers, the only remaining team of the six ahead of the Canadiens points wise, face the Flyers on the road, Toronto at home, the Islanders on the road, the Habs at home, and finish with the Penguins on the road.

All in all, for the Canadiens, acceding to the playoffs is all about three wins in the five remaing games.

This coming weekend's back to back Ottawa and Buffalo games are crucial. One win in either is a big timer. Should they win one of those, they would then face a lame duck Bruins team, then games against the Rangers and Leafs that could hardly matter.

I like those chances, don't you?

I do, for the simple reason that none of the Canadiens last 5 opponants are as desperate as they are!

Here's hoping the seize what is before them!

Previous posts of interest - playoff showdown race.

Top 5 Things Overheard During The Carolina Hurricanes Visit With George Bush At The White House

Caption: Bush laughs at being way down the list from #1. "Number 43, WTF is this?"

5 - "Yes boys, we know it's been 7 months, but he tends to drag his ass when it comes to hurricanes."
4 - "You think it's hard to justify the NHL being in Nashville, you should try justifying Iraq."
3 - "Which one of you is Katrina?"
2 - "Hey, I voted for Rory too. It wouldn't be the first time an underqualified person was voted in, in a messed up election!"
1 - "Geez, after spending a hour with this screwball, Bettman don't look all that bad!""