Habs Should Package Kids For Impact Player

The Canadiens 2008-09 training camp is at it's midway point, and other than a dismal first game showing against Boston, the team's performance has been excellent. Without once yet having iced a squad remotely reminiscent of last season's lineup, the Habs have fared well enough that one could envision them starting the season with either of the rookie laden groups they have dressed in the past three games.

I mean really, what are they to do with all of these kids coming through the woodwork?

It's a beauty of a problem to have if you happen to be Bob Gainey.

So far in exhibition games, it is clear that if this were any other season in which the Canadiens weren't so set and stacked, a good four or five rookies and prospects would be termed as NHL ready.

Matt D' Agnostini looks as though he could be a 15 to 20 goal scorer on about 15 NHL clubs starting this season.

Max Pacioretty is both physically and mentally at a big league level despite only being 19 years of age.

The performances of defensemen P.K. Subban and Yannick Weber tell of great futures so far.

The potential of center Ben Maxwell has shown itself greatly, especially when his talents are combined with those of solid NHL'ers.

And they have only been the best of the best thus far.






















There are also players with last names like Desharnais, Beauregard, Carle, Desjardins, Trotter and Stewart who have made strong impressions in a short time.

All could one day be in the NHL.

The 11 players named here, are primarily just the sharper tip of the iceberg for the Canadiens, and the reality is that they cannot all fit into the club's future plans.

The problem for a smiling Gainey is that the inner competition amongst these one day Habs is that it will bring out the best in them. Open spots on the club currently are more rare than Beatles reunion rumours.

The downside is that many of these players will walk from the team in time, returning little in terms of value. They will be flipped for draft picks down the line at best.

An interesting solution might have presented itself in the sheer numbers of these cumulative talents, as individually their worth would tend to be less than their combined value as a whole.

The Canadiens should make some decisions, perhaps premature, and roll the dice, in order to acquire a player that could not only take them to a higher level, but keep them there for a good long haul.

I bring this up because I see a pair of clubs - Pittsburgh and Detroit - screening the Canadiens Stanley Cup visions.

To ask why, is to understand that the Habs have no players in the Ovechkin, Crosby, Malkin, Zetterberg, and Datsyuk class within their ranks.

Adding a player of that high calibre, would go a long way towards ensuring that the club maintains annual Stanley Cup aspirations.

Mind you, I think this current team is capable right this season, with its current configuration, to go all the way.

But I'm a Habs fan, and I can only think in terms of dynasties. One Cup, only brings a thirst for more, hence my long term view that gaining a markee player suits that need best.

As I see it, in the short or long term, the Canadiens will need a player of absolute character, force, and value. A player that might well define the team identity, beyond the current Koivu and Kovalev regime.

















I envision the idea of such a player as being capable of producing between 85 and 100 points annually for the next decade, or close to it. Someone to measure up against the likes of Ovechkin, Crosby, Malkin, Zetterberg, and Datsyuk.

The Canadiens can only gain such a player via three methods.

1 - Drafting a prospect in the top three spots over the next two seasons.

2 - Making a trade for such a high pick.

3 - Acquiring via the trade route, an already established player who could fill this need.

For option number 1 to happen, the Canadiens would need to be the Islanders, Maple Leafs, Thrashers or Kings. File that scenario under "Not Gonna Happen".

Option two is more likely, in that the Habs could package a group of a half dozen bodies of promise, and gain a lottery pick in the draft that could turn out to be more than the sum of it's parts.

The most immediate route is obviously the most salacious. Acquire a bona fide NHL star - rising or established.

Names - you want: Kovalchuk, Gaborik, Morrow, Kopitar, or Getzlaf. (There are others, but I digress!)

Placed in the Canadiens shoes, I would not part with Pacioretty, McDonough, Yemelin or Maxwell. Other prospects are negotiable.

The bait offered- an alluring bevy of Habs prospects with a pinch of current regulars tossed in.

























Here's the card I would play if I were Gainey:

2006 first round pick, defenseman David Fischer.

Jaroslav Halak.

The rights to Alexandre Perezhogin.

A choice between center Ryan White and winger Matt D' Agnostini.

A choice between Subban and Weber.

A choice between centers Lapierre and Chipchura.

A choice between Mathieu Dandeneault and Tom Kostopoulos.

The possible flip flop of draft choices in 2009 or 2010.

Depending on the trading partner, I'd want Gainey to consider adding an alternative, in the name of a roster player or second round pick.


You might ask why I would be willing to see the club part with so many assets to gain but one player.

My answer involves calculated risk, but I always see it in the sense that the club gaining the best player in a deal is usually the winner.

Of the options available above, if I were to be another clubs GM, I'd grab the following.

White as he is a centerman, over D' Agnostini, because he is a better skater and shows more two way responsability.

Subban over Weber, for reasons incurring grit, charisma, and nationality.

Lapierre over Chipachura in regards to experience, skating skills, and attitude.

Kostopoulos, for his age over Dandy, and his willingness to go to no end for team mates.

I'd also say "NO" to the flip of choices, or at best retain the option.

In the final tally, a deal for the likes of Kovalchuk, Gaborik, Morrow, Kopitar, or Getzlaf would boil down to Fischer, Halak, Perezhogin, White, Subban, Lapierre, and Kostopoulos.

All told, seven bodies for a franchise player.

Which trigger would you pull?

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Expect Turnover In Big Numbers For Habs

Listening to, reading about, and watching the Canadiens training camp progress, I was struck with an odd notion upon realizing the potential that this stockpile of youth has to offer the Habs in terms of future options.

Like, what to heck are we going to do with all these players?

How on Earth does Bob Gainey plan to juggle all this talent without letting any of it slip away?

What would be the masterplan that is most beneficial to team prosperity?

I've no doubt that the Canadiens are laying the groundwork foundation for a Stanley Cup win within a reasonable number of years. In fact I'm almost at the point of thinking such is inevitable.

What is also inevitable is that large chunks of veteran players will be pawned and sacrificed in order to make room for all the rising stars the team has on the way.



I count at least 10 future bona fide NHL'ers that will make their way to Hamilton, or other destinations, for now, that should all be part of the team within 2 to 3 years. Four years max.

Names, you ask? Here goes!

Carey Price, Kyle Chipchura, Sergei Kostitsyn, Ryan O'Byrne, Matt D'Agnostini, Ryan White, Mathieu Carle, Pavel Valentenko, Mikhail Grabovski, and Ben Maxwell.

Presently AWOL but hardly forgotten, is Russian defenseman Alexei Emelin.

I did not mention Max Lapierre or Andrei Kostitsyn, as I consider them to be full time Habs until proven otherwise. I also did not check Janna Lahti in with the youth as he is an older FA signing who is an odds on bet to latch onto his NHL chance this season.




Add to those ten names, the likes of David Fischer, Ryan McDonagh, Max Pacioretty, and P.K. Subban within another year, and you can see that Gainey will need to be quite the manager of talent to see them all through to fruition.

All totalled, we are speaking of 15 fresh talents that will push out players who are currently veterans on the Canadiens, by the time the 2010-11 season gets underway.

The group consists of one goalie, seven defensemen, and seven forwards that could represent more than half of the team's lineup come that fateful season.

That is an incredible amount of influx and turnover on what would still be considered a young Canadiens teams come that season.

Current roster players that should survive this movement are the current young core of Higgins, Plekanec, Latendresse, Komisarek, Lapierre, Andrei Kostitsyn, and perhaps goalie Jaroslav Halak.



They would make up a core of experiencd vets by then.

Other current veteran players from the Habs roster that may last until the 2010-11 season are Andrei Markov and Roman Hamrlik, as impending free agents by that point, Saku Koivu should he resign beyond his current contract, and possibly Michael Ryder and Mark Streit as longshot wildcards to still be around.

Of course, during the interim, names we've yet to crystal ball into the Habs future will also make their way onto the team, one signing or trade at a time.

Now if you add it all up for the 2010-11 season, there are the 15 fresh faces that I've named first, the 7 current young guns that should stick around until then, and a possibility of 5 veterans that could hang onto their Habs jerseys for another four years should their individual stocks dictate they are worth keeping.

That is a total of 27 players the Canadiens will have an interest in hanging onto for another 4 years, and I wouldn't bet the house on Ryder, Hamrlik, Streit, and saddest of all, Koivu.

In order to clear space for these talents, players will be shed from the team on by one over the coming seasons. It's not difficult to imagine to order of their departure, starting with players who are merely passing the current season, soon to be dealt to the highest bidder or Mike Johnsonsed into the hockey ozone.



So in order, start saying goodbye to:

Garth Murray
Patrice Brisebois
Mathieu Dandeneault
Steve Begin
Bryan Smolinski
Alex Kovalev
Josh Georges
Tom Kostopoulos
Francis Bouillon
Cristobal Huet

Not weeping?

Neither am I!

What these players fetch in terms of returns for Gainey will go a long way towards determining how quickly the Canadiens contend for Lord Stanley's mug. He will be tasked with turning over experienced players for much of the same, given the Habs young lineup.

The best news is that Gainey will have the talent and numbers to load a deal sufficiently, making it alluring enough to get exactly what he is going after.



While many fans are clammoring for Cup contention in the Canadiens 100th anniversary year, the goal Gainey may be aiming at is just beyond that season. It should be obvious by now that Gainey is not trying to win but one Cup. He is actually working to build a team that will not only win it, but contend for it for several seasons.

Gainey's greatest virtue as Habs GM up until now has been patience. His next tasks in management will be judgement and timing.

Going over the Canadiens lineup and prospect evaluations will be a kind of W5 proposition for Gainey.



What - The Stanley Cup as a goal.

When - At what point does the team shed current roster players.

Where - Judging the upcoming talent and deciding its readiness.

Who - Players that the team brings in, in the interim.

Why - Upside of potential of players, the decline of current player values, and what is available to help the team via free agency.

It is unfortunate that players we have grown to appreciate will sadly not be among us come Cup hoisting time. Speaking only for myself, it will break my heart if I don't see Saku Koivu win one in his Canadiens lifetime.

But I'll get over it!

Canadiens Over The 50 Player Roster Limit

A breakdown of all the presently contracted players in the Montreal Canadiens organization shows that the Habs will be one over the maximum allowed limit of 50 players per team once RFA Michael Ryder is signed (assuming of course) following his July 30th arbitration case.

I'm not certain, but it is my assumption, that teams are allowed in extremis for roster manoevering, just as they are permitted over the cap in dollars in the off season.

I've consulted the Habs official site to fill out the listing below, and to find where each players has been categorized.

Presently on the Canadiens, there are 21 players contracted, if one includes Ryder in that group. On the Hamilton Bulldogs (with spillover to the Cincinati Cyclones) there are a further 28 professional contracts.

The total becomes 51 players with the inclusion of Jassen Cullimore and Tony Salmeleinen, who were placed on waivers upon their aquisition from Chicago. Should they be bought out of their deals, as has been rumoured, the Canadiens would then be left with only one roster spot remaining, and 49 contracts.



Ryder

Nobody can ever accuse Habs GM Gainey of not making the most of the team's budget.

Using the Montreal Canadiens official site as a guide, we see that there are 74 players in the organization. This total encompasses the two professional teams rosters, players in college or junior, and European prospects.

Players on the Canadiens roster: 21

Forwards: Saku Koivu, Alex Kovalev, Michael Ryder, Bryan Smolinski, Chris Higgins, Tomas Plekanec, Steve Begin, Tom Kostopoulos, Guillaume Latendresse, Maxim Lapierre, Garth Murray, Andrei Kostitsyn, (12)

Defensemen: Andrei Markov, Mike Komisarek, Roman Hamrlik, Mathieu Dandeneault, Francis Bouillon, Josh Gorges, Mark Streit (7)

Goalies: Cristobal Huet, Jaroslav Halak (2)

Players In The System (Hamilton Bulldogs, Cincinati Cyclones, etc): 28

Forwards: Kyle Chipchura, Corey Locke, Jonathan Ferland, Duncan Milroy, Mikhail Grabovsky, Thomas Beauregard, Mathieu Aubin, Matt D' Agnostini, Sergei Kostitsyn, Ryan Russell, Cory Urquhart, Jimmy Bonneau, Gregory Stewart, Janne Lahti, Francis Lemieux (15)

Defensemen: Mathieu Carle, Ryan O'Byrne, Andrew Archer, J.P. Cote, Mathieu Biron, Danny Groulx, Pavel Valentenko, Jamie Rivers, Marvin Degon (9)

Goalies: Carey Price, Yann Danis, Cedric Desjardins, Loic Lacasse (4)

Waivers: Jassen Cullimore, Tony Salmelainen (2)

Rights Retained: Andre Benoit*, Alexander Perezhogin* (2)

Junior and College: 14

Forwards: Andrew Conboy, Olivier Fortier, Ben Maxwell**, Max Pacioretty, Ryan White**, J.T. Wyman (6)

Defensemen: Cameron Cepek, David Fischer, Scott Kishel, Ryan McDonagh, Philippe Paquet, Joe Stejskal, P.K. Subban, Yannick Weber (8)

Europe: 7

Forwards: Andrei Sidyakin (1)

Defensemen: Konstantin Korneev, Oskari Korpikari, Andrei Kruchinin, Alexei Emelin, Nicholas Torp (5)

Goalies: Christopher Heino - Lindberg (1)

* Have been tendered qualifying offers with the Canadiens retaining their NHL rights.
** Must be signed prior to 2008 NHL Entry Draft for rights to be retained.



Lahti

What is curious to note, is that while Gainey has done everything he can to assure that the Hamilton Bulldogs are again as competitive as last season, he has left himself with little wiggle room as far as transactions go. Should Ryder be awarded in the neighbourhood of $4M., the Canadiens still would have room to aquire players salary wise despite the fact that they are up against the wall roster wise.

Guessing Gainey's next move is open to the usual speculation. By practically maxing out the rosters to create a competitive environment on both clubs, Gainey is assuring that he will see each player at their spirited best from the opening of training camp.

In my esteem, Gainey will be closely watching those who lag behind, are disinterested, or fail to realize all that is at stake. Many players on both sides of the NHL equation are on one year deals. In some cases, certain players are about to leave RFA status at the termination of these contracts and Gainey will seek to gain return on them in the form of draft choices for the next two seasons.



Maxwell

The reality is, that no matter how well they do, the Canadiens cannot retain as many bodies next year. The performances of first year Bulldogs such as Mathieu Carle, Sergei Kostitsyn, Ryan Russell, and Thomas Beauregard will be of key importance in the continued transitioning of AHL players pushing NHL'ers.

The veteran lower level players will come under much scrutiny as to their long term NHL possibilities, and will be treated as the commodity that they are.










Beauregard

I predict more player movement at the Hamilton level for Habs. I foresee the trading of players whose contracts expire at years end, in favor of players with an additional year left. There are simply too many one year ( read low risk ) deals there, not to think otherwise.

It was very much in Gainey's favor that the Canadiens held the retaining rights to so many Bulldogs following their Championship run. It saved him from looking for winners in another teams backyard. It also doesn't hurt in keeping a somewhat stable lineup in place, such an AHL unreality, to continue to breed a winning team atmosphere.

With 25 players in the organization without contracts, turnover is guaranteed.

Next year at this time, the Canadiens will have room to sign Ben Maxwell and Ryan White, two excellent prospects from the WHL. The following season, there could be more players to sign. The transition, if Gainey's plan is working, could go on like this for years.

This past season, the Habs lost a fairly decent, but judged expendable, prospect in Juraj Mikus because they were up against the wall of 50. Signing Janne Lahti, Thomas Beauregard, Martin Degon, and Ryan Russell had a price, and Gainey rolled the dice on slightly more mature talent.

The trick will be to maintain the balance being players needing to be signed or lost, and contracts they are willing to pass on. This time Mikus was a choice. With a trend towards longer contracts at both levels, it is a possibility that less choice exists in the future.

The adverse effect of having bundles of farm hands, is that it can affect the NHL club by constricting player movement. The ideal number of players is closer to 47 or 48. This number would facilitate Gainey in terms of making deadline deals in March, by not having to make a deal in advance to create needed room.

With Ryder's upcoming signing or arbiratrary award just around the corner, other domino effect moves are sure to follow. Cullimore and Salmelainen could be just the first of many.